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This feature is a way of airports … While cash burn has diminished from the peak of the crisis, airlines are still expected to burn an average of $6.8 billion/month during the first half of 2021, before the industry turns cash positive in the fourth quarter of 2021. Finally, the drone will replace the horse in rounding up cattle on dude ranches. If I’m right, we’ll start to see some fantastic air travel growth numbers in the second half of 2021. IATA predicts that the airline industry will lose US $118.5 billion in 2020 and a further … The China experience. Airlines cut expenses by an average of a billion dollars a day over 2020 and will still rack-up unprecedented losses. However, vaccine distribution and vaccination may be a little behind more developed markets, leading to a more delayed recovery in financial performance. They will offer deals, preferences and perks to potential travelers with digital health certificates or other proof of vaccination. IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 290 airlines comprising 82% of global air traffic. WHAT TO WATCH: Delta Air Lines will place a 737 MAX order with Boeing at very favorable rates. “We have the ability to safely re-open travel with systematic testing. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in December that airlines will suffer a net loss of $118.5 billion for 2020 and a net loss of $38.7 billion in 2021. But the pace of China’s recovery—from –80% down to almost back to peak—is frankly inspirational. Longer-term, the widespread availability of COVID-19 vaccinations should enable borders to remain open without testing or restriction, but the timeline for vaccine availability is uncertain. That might not happen this time. Consider: Better-than-expected vaccine efficacy. Passenger solutions. The bigger economic picture. Find out all press material produced for the IATA Travel Pass, an app hosting verified test and vaccine information, and a key initiative to give governments the confidence to open borders. Some key markets have remained open and air travel has been helped by the opening of borders with a negative COVID19 test requirement rather than quarantine. Ted Reed, aviation journalist who’s written for the Miami Herald and TheStreet. And of course, there’s always the risk of unpleasant geopolitical shocks. And it must come in forms that that do not increase the already high debt load which has ballooned to $651 billion. By contrast, single aisle deliveries will exceed the 2018 peak by 2024. At its virtual AGM IATA outlined a revision of its outlook for airline industry performance in 2020 and 2021 moving a bad situation into one that is even worse. Government support has kept airlines alive to this point. Long-Term Outlook 2021 Pilot Hiring & Beyond It takes two years to become a qualified airline pilot, making it essential to consider the long-term career outlook. We need to get borders safely re-opened without quarantine so that people will fly again. But in the past, the industry has counted on strong Chinese market growth to help fuel aircraft delivery recoveries. This is according to PwC's Aviation Industry Outlook 2021 authored by Dick Forsberg, published today. The COVID-19 crisis challenged the industry for its very survival in 2020. The arrival of at least three vaccines with 90%-plus effectiveness, coupled with very robust production and distribution plans, is considerably better than my expectations for December (from the standpoint of when this pandemic began). While all regions are impacted by the crisis, those airlines with larger domestic markets or with large cargo operations are performing better. As a sign of this recovery, American Airlines will be back to 700 daily departures from Charlotte for Thanksgiving 2021. The only real question is timing. In October 2019, China’s domestic traffic grew just 5.3% year over year, compared with 12.2% growth in October 2018. Many have far less as the industry enters into the critical winter period, which is characterized by weak demand even in normal times. Loren Thompson, chief operating officer of the Lexington Institute. The expected US$38.7bn loss in 2021 will be … Reshaping the Passenger Experience Webinar Series. VIDEO 2:57 02:57 Closed Borders/Quarantine:The biggest factors impeding the industry’s recovery are travel restrictions and quarantine measure that effectively prevent a meaningful revival of travel. Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at the consultancy Teal Group, WHAT TO WATCH: China, for many different reasons. European airlines credit outlook 2021: stressed sector faces further shakeout in stop-start recovery Statistics & Trends 29 January 2021 09:39 229 Events Industry Council releases Resources … … The differences between the regions become more exaggerated in 2021 with Asia Pacific and North American carriers seeing the most significant reductions in expected losses. Send tips to jbogaisky[at]forbes.com, © 2021 Forbes Media LLC. - The importance of cargo is a further factor leading to this region experiencing stronger financial performance than other regions. But the prospect of losing $38.7 billion next year is nothing to celebrate. Southwest will do well at its new destinations in Colorado Springs and Fresno. “This crisis is devastating and unrelenting. Prejuízo na indústria de aviação segue em 2021 (pdf)Les graves pertes se prolongeront en 2021 (pdf)Continúan Fuertes Pérdidas de la Industria en 2021 (pdf)国际航协：全球航空业巨亏状况将持续到2021年 (pdf). THE BOLD PREDICTION: The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration will finally approve a comprehensive set of beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) rules that will generate a massive uptick in commercial drone activity in the U.S. outside of major cities. From what coronavirus vaccines mean for airlines to how new FAA rules could jump-start commercial drone activity, here’s what Forbes’ expert aviation contributors expect in the year ahead. wave of COVID-19, and so stronger revenues do not arrive until later in 2021 with fairly widespread vaccine availability (though not at developing country ends of their markets). By the end of 2021 stronger revenues will improve the situation, but the first half of next year still looks extremely challenging. Latin American airlines have received little government support, leading to bankruptcies, and COVID-19 containment has been challenging. The most immediate and critical solution is the safe re-opening of borders using systematic COVID-19 testing. That very high savings rate reflects, in part, a lot of people saving money rather than taking summer vacations. Outlook for the airline industry 2020-2021 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 1 9th June 2020. The airline industry plays a key role in the economy. THE BOLD PREDICTION: In the fourth quarter, the U.S. Department of Transportation will be under intense pressure to eliminate the mask mandate on aircraft. But it has become a significantly larger part of airline revenues and cargo revenues are making it possible for airlines to sustain their skeleton international networks,” said de Juniac. For comparison, I had been saying this would happen in the second half of 2023, as have many of my peers. Drone pilots, put on your spurs! Airline industry performance outlook indicates deep industry loss into 2021 A net loss of $38.7 billion is expected in 2021 and 2019 passenger volumes won’t return until 2024 at the earliest. On the assumption that there is some opening of borders by mid-2021 (either through testing or growing availability of a vaccine), overall revenues are expected to grow to $459 billion ($131 billion improvement on 2020, but still 45% below the $838 billion achieved in 2019). 2021 Aviation Industry Outlook Airline outlook dims again as new travel curbs threaten summer. COVID-19 and airlines. Five Progressive Reasons Why President Biden Shouldn’t Cut The Pentagon Budget, Time To Focus On The Real Challenges To Global Security, China Could Use This Sneaky Bomber Maneuver To Encircle Taiwan, This New Armed Drone Is A Milestone In Proliferation, Vaccination Passports And Covid-19 Tracking Apps Could Trigger More Travel, But It Might Not Be Enough, More Guns Than Ever Sold During Month Of Capitol Riot, FBI Background Checks Suggest. Airline Marketers Are Coming Out of Crisis Mode as 2021 Bookings Rise Finding new ways to talk to customers hopeful about Covid vaccines No one is sure what 2021 will look like, but the outlook … THE UNCONVENTIONAL WISDOM: Based on most—if not all—indicators, we’re poised for a much better air travel recovery than we’ve been expecting. But DOT Secretary Buttigieg will declare, “I am letting the flight attendant unions make this call, because it is they who can make the best decision.”, Michael Goldstein is a travel journalist who’s written for the Los Angeles Times and in-flight magazines as well as for Forbes. Air travel demand could snap back quicker than many in the industry are predicting, but dark clouds are forming in China for aircraft makers. You may opt-out by, Deputy editor for Industry; eyes on the skies, America's Top Givers: The 25 Most Philanthropic Billionaires, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Israel Is Going To Market Its Weapons Systems In The United Arab Emirates, Flying Taxi Concepts Gain Traction But Practical Challenges Remain, American B-1 Bombers Are En Route To Norway To Bother The Russians. 2021 Outlook IATA expects airline financial performance to see a significant turn for the better in 2021, even if historically deep losses prevail. Most importantly, people have not lost their desire to travel. The market response to even small measures to lift quarantine is immediate and strong. Travel remains highly discouraged as we enter 2021, but depending on the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, the outlook may improve by the end of the year. In the face of a half trillion-dollar revenue drop (from $838 billion in 2019 to $328 billion) airlines cut costs by $365 billion (from $795 billion in 2019 to $430 billion in 2020). Airlines are unlikely to offer at-the-airport vaccination. Middle East airlines have been challenged by the importance of connecting traffic over Gulf hubs and elsewhere, since long-haul air travel markets have been slowest to reopen. Airline financial performance is expected to see a significant turn for the better in 2021, even if historically deep losses prevail. Either the usual multiplier between GDP and air travel has broken for some reason, or, as some economists believe, the Chinese government is simply fabricating its GDP numbers. However, vaccine distribution and vaccination may be a little behind more developed markets, leading to a more delayed recovery in financial performance. The International Air Transport Association, for which I have a great deal of respect, still says 2024. While the industry will see improved performance in 2021 compared to 2020, the road to recovery is expected to be long and difficult. But management on the postearnings call was generally upbeat in its outlook for 2021. The thirst for the freedom to fly has not been overcome by the crisis. More is likely needed as the crisis is lasting longer than anyone could have anticipated. When I was thinking about what the first article and podcast in 2021 should be, the choice was quite easy. Aviation Industry Outlook 2021 The last year has shaken the aviation industry to its core. THE UNCONVENTIONAL WISDOM: American will be very profitable in the third quarter. Passenger yields are expected to be flat and the load factor is expected to improve to 72.7% (an improvement on the 65.5% expected for 2020, but still well below the 82.5% achieved in 2019). (For a more detailed version of Aboulafia’s outlook, click here. There could be setbacks to getting the pandemic under control. If you want to be up to date with the latest airline industry trends 2020-2021, listen to the full podcast conversation with Henry. But many will partner with vaccine providers like CVS to offer vaccinations, just as airlines like American and United are already partnering with Covid-19 test providers. African airlines have also received little government support and there have been a number of failures. And we need to make that happen fast,” said de Juniac. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced a revised outlook for airline industry performance in 2020 and 2021, with “deep industry losses” set to continue next year, … See what we’re doing to reduce aviation’s emissions, All the information you need to ship temperature-sensitive products, Attracting, developing & retaining talent, Find out what SFO 2021 has in store to provide clarity on where we’ll be in three to five years. Passenger demand is expected to recover by 55% compared to 2020, but that will still be … The worst year in aviation industry history may be behind us, but the pandemic's impact is not. We are preparing for efficient vaccine distribution. It had to be the 2021 travel industry outlook … The airlines are ready. Colin Scarola, vice president at CFRA Research, said in his contrarian outlook that some major U.S. airlines will likely post strong gains in 2021 but they won’t be the ones most people think. THE BIG TREND: The market continues to migrate away from wide-bodies; having already claimed the A380 and 747, is the 777X next? COVID-19 Government Public Health Mitigation Measures, High Performing Airline Finance Organizations (HIPO), COVID-19 Dashboard on State & Airport Restrictions, COVID-19 Contingency Related Differences (CCRD), The Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), Codes - Airline and Location Codes Search, CargoLink - Directory of Cargo Professionals, Travel Industry Designator Service (TIDS), Dangerous Goods Regulations (DGR) courses, Prejuízo na indústria de aviação segue em 2021, Les graves pertes se prolongeront en 2021, Continúan Fuertes Pérdidas de la Industria en 2021. Resources for airlines and air travel professionals during the COVID-19 pandemic. The expected $38.7 billion loss in 2021 will be second only to 2020 performance. You can also check out some of our prior podcasts, where we talked about future airline distribution scenarios, 2020-2025 airline technology outlook and 2020 airline … THE MISPLACED ASSUMPTION: China, as an aviation market, is one of two big misplaced assumptions. And most of all, will China resume its mantle as the world’s biggest jetliner export market? So, an air travel demand recovery will not mean that twin aisle output will see a recovery. ... 2021 03:46 PM IST ... industry body Airlines UK said. Airlines will still lose, however, $13.78 for each passenger carried. It implies a much shorter travel demand recovery period than feared. The sight of drones flying up and down telephone lines, power lines, railroads and pipelines will become an everyday occurrence for Americans outside the major cities. But based on the drivers I described in the section above, air travel looks poised for a fantastic turnaround. The real estate market is in great shape, too, with a very strong outlook for 2021. Aggressive cost-cutting is expected to combine with increased demand during 2021 (due to the re-opening of borders with testing and/or the widespread availability of a vaccine) to see the industry turn cash-positive in the fourth quarter of 2021 which is earlier than previously forecast. We have fast, accurate and scalable testing that can safely do the job. The Zacks Airline industry is a 27-stock group within the ... the industry’s loss estimate for 2021 has widened to 76 cents per share from 73 … Back in Jun-2020 it had projected airline … With the continued financial support of governments to keep airlines financially viable and the use of testing to enable travel without quarantine, we have a plan to overcome the worst immediately. We can debate the long-term impact of the pandemic on business travel, and greater videoconferencing use may impact this, too, but it’s hard to deny that most businesses are eager to get back to business as usual, at least for a while. It is also important to keep an eye on the most recent federal stimulus package, which includes 15 billion for airlines … Hotels and airlines like Qantas are threatening to ban unvaccinated travelers. To help us make sense of the travel … The U.S. national savings rate is at a 45-year high. Several critical challenges need urgent attention: Debt Levels and Financial Support:Airlines are surviving on financial life support from governments. The livelihoods of millions are in the hands of governments and public health authorities. As with the vaccines, this economic picture is not what I expected to see in December when the pandemic began. This loss will be reduced sharply by $80 billion in 2021. Mid-range international routes—those of fewer than 5,000 miles—are increasingly flown by single aisle jets like Airbus’ A321neo. The integration of the 5G network has begun. We cannot wait on the promise of a vaccine. There is every reason for optimism when governments use testing to open borders. Airlines have cut costs by 45.8%, but revenues are down 60.9%. Government support has kept airlines … It will save jobs and kick-start the recovery in the travel and tourism sector which accounts for 10% of global GDP,” said de Juniac. A continued capacity crunch due to the slow reintroduction of belly capacity from passenger services combined with a higher proportion of time and temperature sensitive cargo (vaccines) will see a further 5% increase in yields. Performance factors in 2021 will show improvements on 2020; and the second half of 2021 is expected to see improvements after a difficult 2021 first half. And with airlines expected to bleed cash at least until the fourth quarter of 2021 there is no time to lose,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO. “The financial damage of this crisis is severe. Pent-up travel demand. Governments understood the criticality of a viable air transport sector when they invested billions to keep it afloat. The cargo side of the business is expected to continue with strong performance. That would be a billion more travelers than in 2020, but still 1.7 billion travelers short of 2019 performance. Delta will reap a benefit from keeping the middle seat empty longer than anyone else did, and will mention its revenue premium on every earnings call. “The numbers couldn’t get much worse. Even after $173 billion of government support of various kinds in 2020, the median airline has just 8.5 months of cash to survive. But that also implies that people will be eager (and financially able) to travel again. The airline industry is comprised of companies that … We will see drone swarms monitoring fire risks, a gradual scale-up of drone delivery applications in rural areas, drones measuring the growth of forest stands. And longer-term the progress on vaccines is encouraging. For traders News and features Analysis American Airlines share price forecast: unclear 2021 outlook, clearer skies for 2025 Share Article The first three weeks of 2021 have proven to be identical to the majority of 2020 for the travel and leisure industry. But there is a way forward. The other big misplaced assumption concerns twin aisle jets. (It’s tied with the U.S. as the biggest single national market.). This will contribute to strong performance in cargo revenues which are expected to grow to an historic high of $139.8 billion. There could be a double-dip recession, or one or more stock market crashes. Please see our privacy policy and cookies help page for complete information. Chinese airlines and China’s economy lead the recovery, with the large Chinese domestic market allowing a return to profitability by the end of 2020. Passenger volumes are not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2024 at the earliest, with domestic markets recovering faster than international services. I help direct our coverage of autos, energy and manufacturing, and write about aerospace and defense. On the agenda: operational resilience, mental health and employee wellness, leadership and THE UNCONVENTIONAL WISDOM: Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbofan overtakes GE and Safran’s LEAP engines in number of Airbus A320 users, especially if fuel prices rise. In 2019 cargo accounted for 12% of revenues and that is expected to grow to 36% in 2020. © International Air Transport Association (IATA) 2021. Updated Dec 7, 2020. Teal Group forecasts don’t call for twin aisle output to return to the 2015–19 peak until after 2029. - The importance of cargo is a further factor leading to this region experiencing stronger financial performance than other regions. The relative lack of cold chain facilities in the region may delay the distribution of vaccines and this region is expected to experience a delayed recovery in financial performance. It could not, however, make up for the fall in passenger revenue. Will economic decoupling worsen between China and the West? All major operational parameters in the passenger business were negative: Operational parameters for cargo are performing significantly better than for passenger but are still depressed compared to 2019: “Cargo is performing better than the passenger business. With 46 million jobs at risk in the travel and tourism sector alone because of plummeting air travel, we must act fast with solutions that are at hand. A net loss of $38.7 billion is expected in 2021 (deeper than the $15.8 billion forecast in June). ), Dean Donovan, managing director of the investment firm DiamondStream Partners. In total, the airline industry has raised over $50 billion in equity and debt financing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now they need to protect those investments by giving airlines the means to safely do business,” said de Juniac. This could hurt their earnings potential well into 2021 and beyond. According to IATA, passenger air transport was down 90% year-on-year in April 2020 and down 75% in August.According to an estimate, … Boeing’s production plans for the 787 and 777X, and Airbus’ plans for the A350XWB and A330neo, will likely face additional pressure in 2021 and beyond. But testing is the immediate solution to meaningfully re-open air travel. New York (CNN Business) The US airline industry is about to get smaller. It’s quite possible that for the strong majority of the traveling public, Covid-19 ceases to be a factor in their travel plans by the end of 2021. North American airlines benefit from an earlier recovery in the US domestic market (the largest domestic market in the world) and have already restructured more extensively than other regions which supported their pre-crisis industry-leading financial performance. Deep industry losses will continue into 2021, even though performance is expected to improve over the period of the forecast. But this time, there is a serious problem with twin aisle overcapacity, coupled with a strong secular shift away from twin aisles in airline fleet planning. elevating aviation safety to new heights. How can stakeholders at all levels look ahead with confidence in the face of a myriad of issues—including financial losses, airline … All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. The factors that caused the pilot shortage … Will the Chinese government continue to turn its back on their economy’s private sector and on global trade? European airlines rely to a large extent on international market revenues, economies were hit by a severe 2nd wave of COVID-19, and so stronger revenues do not arrive until later in 2021 with fairly widespread vaccine availability (though not at developing country ends of their markets). Some key markets have remained open and air travel has been helped by the opening of borders with a negative COVID19 test requirement rather than quarantine. The relative lack of cold chain facilities in the region may delay the distribution of vaccines and this region is expected to experience a delayed recovery in financial performance. - Success in virus control helps some other parts of the region, ahead of vaccine distribution. THE BIG TREND: Business travel will return and leisure travel surge. “The history books will record 2020 as the industry’s worst financial year, bar none. Robot Tanks Are Awesome. THE BOLD PREDICTION: I’ll go ahead and just run with this optimism: I predict we’ll get back to the 2019 air traffic peak in late 2022. The only real question is timing. That's bad news for airline employees -- and for airline passengers. For comparison, in 2020 American operated 460 average daily Charlotte departures during the 12-day holiday period. Either way, the consequences for jetliner demand could be significant. THE BOLD PREDICTION: Airlines and online travel agencies will begin offering "vaccine vacations" in 2021 to jump-start travel. Alas, the COVID-19 pandemic has undermined the good work the industry did. While cash burn has diminished from the peak of the crisis, airlines are still expected to burn an average of $6.8 billion/month during the first half of 2021, before the industry turns cash positive in the fourth quarter of 2021. We also use cookies for advertising purposes. A 2020 pilot outlook from civil aviation training group CAE goes one step further forecasting the industry will require 27,000 pilots by the end of this year due to mandatory retirements … In past aviation downturns, twin aisle output recovered in line with single aisle output, and of course with air travel demand growth and airline industry health. Yes, I’m concerned about the pace of further air travel growth. Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bearish Outlook. The result is that airlines will lose $66 for every passenger carried this year for a total net loss of $118.5 billion. Bridging airlines to the recovery is one of the most important investments that governments can make. The road to recovery looks long and winding. Demand for air travel will not return to normal until mid-2021 at the earliest, under a best-case scenario outlined by an analyst at Stifel. Phased re-opening of air travel markets RPKs rising first on domestic markets and later on international in 2020 … But Are They Too Expensive To Risk In Combat? We use cookies to give you the best experience on our website. Stock markets continue to set new records, with the Dow Jones industrial average hitting 30,000 in late November. Top Airline Stocks for Q1 2021 CHR.TO, CPA, and RYAAY are top for value, growth, and momentum, respectively. Improved business confidence and the important role that air cargo should play in vaccine distribution is expected to see cargo volumes grow to 61.2 million tonnes (up from 54.2 million tonnes in 2020 and essentially matching the 61.3 million tonnes carried in 2019). GENEVA — IATA’s revised outlook for airline industry performance in 2020 and 2021 shows that deep industry losses will continue into 2021, even though performance is expected to … That might change the industry’s attitude toward hiring and investment and go a long way toward making 2021 (and 2022) a far better year than the dumpster fire that was 2020. “The financial damage of this crisis is severe. The China air travel recovery is very impressive. A lot can go wrong here. More enlightened providers will pull out the carrot instead of the stick. This is because China’s air travel demand slowdown predates the pandemic. THE BIG TREND: Business travel will return and leisure travel surge. Passenger numbers are expected to grow to 2.8 billion in 2021. COVID-19 Resources for Airlines & Air Travel Professionals, Keep passengers/crew safe & fuel costs down, Safety & Flight Ops Conference, 19-20 June. In December, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said airlines will suffer a net loss of $118.5 billion for 2020 and an expected net loss of $38.7 billion in 2021. In comparison, costs are only expected to rise by $61 billion, delivering overall improved financial performance. The critical winter period, which is characterized by weak demand even in normal.! By contrast, single aisle deliveries will exceed the 2018 peak by 2024 latest industry... `` vaccine vacations '' in 2021 will be very profitable in the past, the ’... Year is nothing to celebrate the most airline industry outlook 2021 and strong 2024 at the consultancy Teal Group forecasts don t! And will still lose, however, make up for the Miami Herald and TheStreet economic worsen. Distribution and vaccination may be a little behind more developed markets, leading to this region experiencing stronger financial.. 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